Search for: All records

Abstract. Many marine-terminating outlet glaciers have retreated rapidly in recent decades, but these changes have not been formally attributed to anthropogenic climate change. A key challenge for such an attribution assessment is that if glacier termini are sufficiently perturbed from bathymetric highs, ice-dynamic feedbacks can cause rapid retreat even without further climate forcing. In the presence of internal climate variability, attribution thus depends on understanding whether (or how frequently) these rapid retreats could be triggered by climatic noise alone. Our simulations with idealized glaciers show that in a noisy climate, rapid retreat is a stochastic phenomenon. We therefore propose a probabilistic approach to attribution and present a framework for analysis that uses ensembles of many simulations with independent realizations of random climate variability. Synthetic experiments show that century-scale climate trends substantially increase the likelihood of rapid glacier retreat. This effect depends on the timescales over which ice dynamics integrate forcing. For a population of synthetic glaciers with different topographies, we find that external trends increase the number of large retreats triggered within the population, offering a metric for regional attribution. Our analyses suggest that formal attribution studies are tractable and should be further pursued to clarify the human role in recent ice-sheet change. We emphasize that early-industrial-era constraints on glacier and climate state are likely to be crucial for such studies. 

Hercules Dome, Antarctica, has long been identified as a prospective deep ice core site due to the undisturbed internal layering, climatic setting and potential to obtain proxy records from the Last Interglacial (LIG) period when the West Antarctic ice sheet may have collapsed. We performed a geophysical survey using multiple ice-penetrating radar systems to identify potential locations for a deep ice core at Hercules Dome. The surface topography, as revealed with recent satellite observations, is more complex than previously recognized. The most prominent dome, which we term ‘West Dome’, is the most promising region for a deep ice core for the following reasons: (1) bed-conformal radar reflections indicate minimal layer disturbance and extend to within tens of meters of the ice bottom; (2) the bed is likely frozen, as evidenced by both the shape of the measured vertical ice velocity profiles beneath the divide and modeled ice temperature using three remotely sensed estimates of geothermal flux and (3) models of layer thinning have 132 ka old ice at 45–90 m above the bed with an annual layer thickness of ~1 mm, satisfying the resolution and preservation needed for detailed analysis of the LIG period. 

Abstract. The dynamics of marine-terminating outlet glaciers are of fundamental interest in glaciology and affect mass loss from ice sheets in a warming climate. In this study, we analyze the response of outlet glaciers to different sources of climate forcing. We find that outlet glaciers have a characteristically different transient response to surface-mass-balance forcing applied over the interior than to oceanic forcing applied at the grounding line. A recently developed reduced model represents outlet-glacier dynamics via two widely separated response timescales: a fast response associated with grounding-zone dynamics and a slow response of interior ice. The reduced model is shown to emulate the behavior of a more complex numerical model of ice flow. Together, these models demonstrate that ocean forcing first engages the fast, local response and then the slow adjustment of interior ice, whereas surface-mass-balance forcing is dominated by the slow interior adjustment. We also demonstrate the importance of the timescales of stochastic forcing for assessing the natural variability in outlet glaciers, highlighting that decadal persistence in ocean variability can affect the behavior of outlet glaciers on centennial and longer timescales. Finally, we show that these transient responses have important implications for attributing observed glacier changes to natural or anthropogenic influences; the future change already committed by past forcing; and the impact of past climate changes on the preindustrial glacier state, against which current and future anthropogenic influences are assessed.